oregon measure 91 legalization new approach
Ending Marijuana Prohibition

Flawed Poll Shows Marijuana Legalization Losing In Oregon

oregon measure 91 legalization new approachA new poll was released yesterday by KGW News and the Oregonian, which found Oregon Measure 91 losing by two points. Oregon Measure 91 would legalize, tax, and regulate recreational marijuana in Oregon. Below is a summary of what the poll found:

The Oct. 26-27 survey of 403 likely voters found that 44 percent backed the legalization measure while 46 percent were opposed.  Another 7 percent were unsure and and 2 percent would not say.  The difference between the yes and no sides is well within the poll’s margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The new poll showed a lower level of support for the measure than an Oct. 8-11 survey taken for Oregon Public Broadcasting and Fox 12 that showed 52 percent supported Measure 91 and 41 percent opposed.

The biggest difference in this poll compared to previous polls, all of which showed the measure winning by a significant margin, is that this poll made the assumption that 70%+ of voters for the 2014 Oregon election would be over the age of 51. That’s a very, very large assumption, one that I think discredits this poll quite a bit.

As I’ve stated before, nearly 3/4ths of this blog’s Oregon readers are between the ages of 18-34. There have been well over 600,000 visitors to this blog from Oregon. I urge all of you that fit this description to help get out the vote. Go to DidTheyVote.Org to see if your friends or family members have voted, and if they haven’t, give them a gentle reminder to please do so. A high voter turnout will help ensure that marijuana is legalized in Oregon, and we don’t have another missed opportunity like in 2012. If you are able to, please make a donation to the campaign.

  • Sarijuana

    How do you know the demographic of that poll?

    • Mike

      We don’t but I checked CNN’s exit polls for 2010 and they had the OR share of voters 50 and over at 52%. Unfortunately, that link is no longer up, I assume CNN is making room for the 2014 data.

      Actually, there is one good thing about this poll. It will keep our voters from being complacent.

  • Cleanslate

    There is one big flaw in this poll, it doesn’t take into account the voter registration surge that has occurred that focused on registering students. An increase of 69,000 newly registered voters since May, including 55,000 college students registered through the efforts of the Oregon Student Association.

    This effort has helped create the largest level of Oregon registered voters since the 2012 election. Most of these new voters are non-aligned with a high percentage being in the 18-34 age group ; the demographic group that is decidedly in favor of legalization of cannabis.

    This poll unrealistically discounts the significance of this age group; assuming most of them won’t vote. This will be the dark horse in this race.

    • Anslinger’s Goon

      Exactly, those new voters aren’t picked up in the poll. My calculations show that we need to have at least 72% voter turnout to ensure passage of 91. Anything below 70% and it will fail, for sure. We are on track for 72% (the amount that showed up for 2010), so if we can keep this pace, then it should pass, but I’d like to see 75% participation if possible and have a mandate with this.

  • Dusty Relic

    Everybody in Oregon needs to vote next week. For once in your life your vote may actually matter.

  • Cleanslate