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Flawed Poll Shows Oregon Marijuana Legalization ‘Too Close To Call’

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oregon measure 91 legalization new approachThere are not that many polls out of Oregon for the marijuana legalization initiative that voters will see on their ballots this November. Oregon Measure 91 would legalize the possession of up to eight ounces of marijuana and the cultivation of four plants. I have seen many polls out of Florida for the medical marijuana initiative there, and a few out of Washington D.C. and Alaska for the marijuana legalization initiatives there. However, for some reason, Oregon polls are few and far between. The latest poll out of Oregon was conducted by Survey USA and KATU News, which found the following:

A SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU showed that Oregonians back legalizing recreational marijuana, with 44 percent of likely voters supporting it and 40 percent opposed. But the razor-thin margin and wide disparity of support among demographics means turnout could end up deciding whether it passes.

Seniors heavily oppose Measure 91, the poll found, with it trailing by 28 points among those 65 and older. Likely voters age 50-64 support it by a margin of 13 points, and it leads by 11 points among those 35-49.

Sixty-six percent of liberals support Measure 91, while 72 percent who identify as conservative oppose it. The measure is tied 42-42 in the Portland area, but it leads 47-38 throughout the rest of the state.

While this poll technically shows that the initiative is winning, it’s not winning by much. A poll released by SurveyUSA earlier this year found 51% support, which at the time I thought was low. I have seen internal polling for the initiative that put support closer to 57%. Why is this poll so low? There are many reasons why this poll is flawed. For starters, they didn’t poll the actual  language of the initiative, which is significant because voters aren’t going to be voting on generic language.

They asked poll participants if they were ‘certain’ to vote yes or no, and treated everyone else as undecided. The Oregon measure 91 questions only came after a series of questions for a range of other unrelated subjects. SurveyUSA always have sample issues, including the fact that poll participants are not drawn from voter lists, and SurveyUSA tries to sub on-line interviews for cellphone polling. I would love to see a poll conducted by the campaign, that had solid sampling of actual voters, and ask those likely voters how they feel about the actual language of the initiative. Anyone who knows Oregon knows that the ‘tied 42-42 in the Portland area’ is completely inaccurate.

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72 Comments

  1. Okay…so why should people be put in jail for simple possession then, though? You don’t want their lives to be ruined through use so you would rather ruin their lives through a criminal record? Top notch logic, I must say.

  2. bonnieparmenter on

    If we are going to keep using the excuse, alcohol and cigarettes are legal, why nor cocaine, meth and heroin. We are already seeing the studies that marijuana legalization increases the use, not only in adults but minors. We legalized the use, in Oregon, already for medical purposes and that even increased the use over all. I have to interview, employees on a monthly basis that test positive for THC and I hear the excuse, all the time, “It can’t be that harmful” my dad, brother or whomever uses it for their diabetes, cancer or fibromyalgia. We went a little over a year with-out random drug testing and we had an increase in accidents of about 300%. 3 out of five tested were testing positive for THC. It impairs your ability to make good decisions, be alert. I would have to let go anyone who tested positive for alcohol also. Oregon is the 3rd lowest in the nation for children not graduating normally from high school and the lowest for Caucasians. We have one of the highest usages of pot, not only for adults but minors. The law is extremely flawed. If it passes, it is going to make law officer’s jobs harder, and teacher’s and employer’s jobs harder. If you just don’t give a dam, vote yes!!!!

  3. Since you went there. What are the effects of Alcohol on the brain of minors? I’m betting its much of the same. Just as under age drinking is illegal so would be underage pot use. Legal or not, the use among minors would not likely change. So, all a no vote does is make things harder for responsible adults.

  4. bonnieparmenter on

    We, in general, become more conservative, as we grow older. I grew up in the brink of the marijuana revolution in the 60-70’s and saw the aftermath of a
    society on drugs. The users either stopped using or started showing the effects of their use. There was a decline in the use of Marijuana since
    the 80’s, until recently. There is a huge surge in the use. We are already seeing the effects. Oregon has one of the lowest normal
    graduation rates in the nation and are SAT scores have been dropping, as the pot use increases. People need to educate themselves on the side
    effects. There are hundreds of studies, by reputable universities, done on the effects of the use of marijuana and none are positive. Everything
    from increase in schizophrenia to emphysema. The younger you start the more negative effects on your brain and body. One study showed that there
    was a 50% increase in bouts of psychosis in adults who had smoked pot, while a minor, than those who did not.

    I totally supported the use for medical purposes, but it has been greatly abused, like many pharmaceutical drugs. There are states purposing to legalize
    marijuana with low or no THC and high CBD. I personally think this is a better route. I know, personally, to many people who used and abused that
    are seeing extreme negative effects from their use.

    I have done my home work and educated myself on the effects of marijuana use. I read dozens of legitimate studies on the effects of THC on the brain and smoking marijuana on the brain and body. and I chose to vote
    NO on 91.

    Do your
    homework before you vote!!!!

  5. Rusti Mccollum on

    I worked for the school district and DARE was all about turning kids against their parents. That in turn overran our foster system etc…It was crap aimed at arresting parents, teaching kids to turn on their caregivers can have very serious consequences and it was BRAINWASHING..

  6. Rusti Mccollum on

    I’m a card holder I am off 25 different meds and LOST 100 pounds using medical mj..I was on among others 8 vicodin a day, 6 dilaudid , and 3 morphine. among antidepressants , muscle relaxers Seemed like every drug I had , had a side effect they gave me another pill for. I am currently off of all opiates anti depressants..etc. PLEASE vote yes some of us ARE responsible and do benefit from its use..

  7. Rusti Mccollum on

    Well, look at the prohibition on alcohol it created deaths, underground clubs etc.., Prohibition doesn’t alwas work.. history has proven that also..

  8. Rusti Mccollum on

    We voted yes too.. Im a patient i am currently off 25 different meds multiple times a day and lost 100 pounds hiking off the weight from being bedridden on opiates , antidepressants etc. I am now down to my MJ, MY HEART MED AND ESTROGEN.I TAKE GABABETIN . all but one only once a day. I like my mj in capsule for as well as flower..As my hubby sai medical mj gave him his wife and our son their mother back.Because of my story alot of those I know voted yes..

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