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How Reliable Are Proposition 19 Polls

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A new poll was released concerning California’s Proposition 19 earlier this month, which showed the legalization effort passing by a 47% to 43% margin. That is quite a slide from a poll that was released by the same research company in April, which showed the legalization effort passing 56% to 42%. So what has happened? Here is what SurveyUSA, who conducted the polls, has to say: “Ballot measures are difficult to poll; opposition to many ballot measures increases as election day approaches. Voter reaction to Proposition 19 can be expected to shift as both sides begin to advertise the pros and cons of passage.”

Below is a chronological history of the polls I could find online:

4/20/10, SurveyUSA
Passing 56% to 42%

5/16/10, Public Policy Institute of California
Passing 49% to 48%

05/26/10, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Passing 49% to 41%

6/29/10, Reuters
Failing 50% to 48%

7/8-11/10, SurveyUSA
Passing 50% to 40%

7/9/10, The Press-Enterprise
Failing 48% to 44%
*Interesting information that was also found in the poll – Voters in L.A. County were nearly split on the issue, with 47% saying yes, 46% saying no. Meanwhile in the San Francisco Bay Area, voters overwhelmingly support the prop, voting 53% yes and 38% no. That nearly the opposite in other parts of the state including San Diego (39% yes, 54% no), Northern California (37% yes, 49% no) and Central Valley(36% yes, 54% no).*

7/23-25/2010, Public Policy Polling
Passing 52% to 36%
*Interesting information that was also found in the poll – 64 percent of those polled voted for Obama or a third party in 2008, 38 percent claimed to have consumed marijuana previously.

8/9/10-8/11/10, SurveyUSA
Passing 50% to 40%

8/31-9/1/10, SurveyUSA
Passing 47% to 43%

It’s hard to know what to think from the polls. It is a midterm election year, so the incumbent party is likely to take a substantial hit. Conservatives are going to be out in full force, while Democrats will be more likely to stay home. This is the biggest election in the marijuana movement when you consider the California Governor and AG race. With only a handful of weeks left until Election Day, only time will tell…it would be a scary world with a Whitman/Cooley scenario and no Prop 19…PLEASE TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW TO VOTE YES ON PROP 19!!!

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10 Comments

  1. Marijuana should not be legalized. From what I’ve read, if it do get legalized, the federal government will cut future funding towards any state that violate its laws. This will pose two perceivable problems. 1.) The Feds will cut funding towards CA for ignoring it’s laws. 2.) The current Obama Administration is not going forward with regulating pot laws but when his administration is over, who is to say that his successors will adhere to the same views as Obama? This will in turn might run the chance of DEA agents going full force on pot smokers and giving them a record.

    Thus, this pose another question. If pot were to be legalized and then un-legalized, how will the CA government make up for the loss revenues that they have been receiving from pot smokers? The lost of revenues will have to come from somewhere and our system is already broken. More Tax???

    It’s true that legalizing will indeed create jobs, both in the private sector and in the government sector but it’s like putting money into one hand and giving it out to the other. Tax revenues will go towards more regulations efforts, more policing, more administrating, more paper pushers to monitor the ins and out of this policy. Where do you thing the money comes from to regulate these “pot regulations”? Pot Taxes.

    The system is broken and we should focus on fixing the problem and not just throw money at it. If government wish to fix a problem by just taxing its citizen, who is to say that when new and upcoming problems arise, they will not try to tax their citizen again on something that we all currently enjoy freely? Today is taxing marijuana, tomorrow you might be taxed for driving your car because it emits carbon dioxide (CO2) and have to pay a carbon tax. You might say that my argument is a slippy slop but just take into consideration that although history doesn’t repeats itself, one must remember that it often rhymes.

    There are MANY more arguments that I can give for the cons of this bill but the arguments will be just too many and the time for writing it down will be too vast. Please vote no on prop 19 and demand a BETTER BILL “FOR THE PEOPLE”. NO TAX.

  2. Vote yes on prop19 and dont buy in to the medical marijuana guys trying to campaine against Legalizing Pot, theyre just worried about there wallet.

  3. and I thought you were going to add something constructive to this conversation – my mistake.

  4. If we vote no on PROP 19 all of the users of Marijuana will obtain medical marijuana recommendation cards and will use the product anyway. If that happens it will continue to support illegal growing and importing of marijuana and there will be no conrol or taxes generated from its use.

    Please understand 1 thing, Pot is sold at every street corner now, if prop 19 is approved Marijuana will be completely controlled and handled in a safer manner including quality control, prices will be more realistic and in turn the illegal importing will cease to exist.

    The Dispenseries have spent money to setup the medical marijuana collectives therefore they have everything to lose if Prop 19 is approved, Remove all the scammers and peddlers vote yes and allow the state to protect the minors and keep some cash in this country for our future.

    Thanks

  5. legallize the flowering herb called cannabis. never harmed anyone and it is beneficial in so many ways

  6. Laws to protect everyone money to be make by California and in return allow people to use MJ at home providing they follow the rules about minors etc with no gray areas.
    What a great prop.
    Vote yes its the only way to solve the MJ problem in this state, otherwise we can continue with gray areas feds vs users state judges dismissing the charges and the cat and mouse games continue at the tax payers expense.

  7. Everything is taxed in some form. There is already a hidden tax involved because of the criminal risk involved. Don’t keep it criminalized just because you don’t want the government to get a piece of the pie.

  8. I’m still undecided on this issue:
    1.) It would be great to have MJ legal

    2.) To sell your soul so the Gov’t can continue tax and raise taxes on the “Sin Tax” would be Fruitlesss.

    MJ is Gods gift – Not taxable in my eyes

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