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Will Recreational Marijuana Prices Plummet In Colorado Next Year?

marijuana cash industry bankingI have always maintained that if the blackmarket is going to be put out of business in Colorado and Washington, prices would have to drop significantly from what they are right now. Sure, there are lots of people out there that are willing to pay $60-$85 an eighth, but true veterans (the consumers that make up a bulk of the market) will not pay those prices forever, if at all. Fortunately, more and more growers are getting their operations up and running and will soon be flooding the market with fresh supply. That, combined with increasing competition from new shops opening up, should affect prices quite a bit in Colorado and Washington.

At least one store owner agrees. Per Reason:

The advantages of a medical card should wane as supply rises and recreational prices fall. Kayvan Khalatbari, co-owner of Denver Relief, a medical dispensary that started serving recreational consumers in July, says after-tax prices in that market average $50 to $60 per eighth. He expects those prices to plummet by next year, however, as growers ramp up production and new suppliers enter the market. As of October 1, dispensaries no longer have to grow 70 percent of their inventory, and businesses dedicated to cultivation will be allowed.

“I would not be surprised, given the flood that’s going to happen, if we see $10 and $15 eighths by early next year,” Khalatbari says. “I would believe that. I could see ounces being sold for $50. I truly see that happening, because there is going to be so much competition [and] people are becoming so efficient in their production. They’re automating much more. We’re seeing best practices settle in. There’s less risk in operating because people are operating at a higher level. I think we’re going to become a very efficient industry very quickly. We’re going to see competition, and we’re going to see prices hit rock bottom early next year.” At that point, he predicts, the black market will dwindle away.

If prices for eighths truly fall to the $10-15 range, it would definitely eliminate the blackmarket in surrounding areas. No gang, cartel, or dealer can compete at those prices, especially since people would prefer to shop from a large selection, something that stores offer but the blackmarket generally doesn’t. Even at $140 an ounce, which is the average predicted price in Oregon if Measure 91 passes, I don’t see the blackmarket sticking around.

  • Cyndysub

    Those prices are insane and need to come way down and kick the tax piggies to the curb where they belong.

    • Sarijuana

      What does that mean?

    • Jetdoc

      My biggest thing is… that these States QUIT trying to get RICH off of legalized cannabis. They’re allowing medical marijuana, but they keep THAT in such a “Gray area” that prices stay high because of the risks involved. Let’s get this STRAIGHT! FELONIES AREN’T FREE! Hence why prices are so high. Take away the chances of them getting arrested and costing them UNREAL amounts of money to SAVE yourself! Prices DROP drastically!

      • Cyndysub

        I can see your point and I certainly hope so.

  • medcannabis1

    Why would anyone want to continue to support Cartel pricing? The costs should be about 20-50 per ounce and at that price it is still the most expensive flower on the planet. This is about agriculture and farming, not profiteering.. http://www.veteransforcompassionatecare.org

    • Hehe

      Saffron is the most expensive flower :)

      • Gino

        No, its because only the saffron pistols are harvested from the flower, its like plucking three eyelashes from each flower. That’s why saffron is so expensive. The saffron flower itself is not used.

    • Zack

      $20-$50 for an ounce that will last you a month or more of some insane dankness?? yea fucking right! you cant even grow it for that cheap!
      how do you expect to turn a profit? I might as well give you a bag of weed and pay you $20 to smoke it!

      At your suggested rate, you would have to have a couple hundred plants before it is worthwhile, and even still at that point, you would still need a day job to pay for it all. Not to mention that you would spend 8+ hr a day in the grow, leaving no time for that “day job” or normal life.

      It used to be worth its weight in gold. now it is only worth that if it is extracted. (and looks like it too)

      You are suggesting salve wages for a top dollar product. I could easily see $20 / oz for some outdoor brick weed but never for the indoor diggity dankness!

      • medcannabis1

        Dear Zack, the cost to grow cannabis with the sun, depending on the infrastructure used , can produce cannabis at cost of nutrients and labor… the quality depends on the genetics and care applied.. so until you have operated at a scale that provides care to thousands I suggest you look at the equation not with cartel p[ricing and green greed but with compassion and solid economic structures.
        Our business model is designed to bring the cannabis to the patient so the sick and suffering can afford to replace the toxic prescription medications.
        There are different levels of scale, but the days of paying more than 1000 per pound of top quality flowers is soon at hand…. There is no reason to support CARTEL pricing
        .

        • Guest

          Outdoor weed sucks. No matter how good of genetics or nutes it will still suck. You wont catch me dead smoking outdoor. Not even the hash from it!… maybe if it is further purified than just BHO (dual solvent) and still not likely. It is even hard to sell outdoor.

          Yes you can grow HUGE outdoor for dirt cheap , we just did 3lb per plant in our back yard… but it will never compare to some good indoor. Never. I have $30 / seed genetics & $5 / seed genetics… Both come out INSANE dank indoors… but SUCK outdoors. Its such a waste, really.

          Now when your bringing a business into the works, you have more than just nutes & light to pay for. Licenses, Licenses, Licenses & Taxes, Taxes, Taxes… are not cheap, plus labor and a facility. And to top it off, they are not allowed to grow outside. It has to all be under Lock & Key. Safe from fence-hoppers or a pair of bolt cutters. 24/hr video surveillance direct to the police station. Too many expenses to even consider listing here. All of which has to be paid for with the “$20 to $50 an oz”. It is not a good business model. A good business should expect to turn a profit fairly quickly, not to expect a never-ending loss.

          It is clear that you are a “user” and not a “producer” as you expect dirt prices on an expensive product without regard to the cost of doing business.

          Now for the average Joe, dirt $30 oz weed is great… but I wont touch that shit with a ten foot pole! Some straight dirt mexican brick. Lots of people are happy smoking that… and FYI you can buy an OZ of that for $40 in FLORIDA right now!

          If you want the best, your going to pay for it. If you want it cheap, it wont be the best. Simple facts of life my friend.

          • Nicolas Edwards

            Not very bright here.

          • Frank

            The people who want indoor weed will still exist, but overall all the new and casual smokers that emerge from legal availability will smoking the cheap outdoor weed. The indoor weed that has high potency, flavor and different smells will be like the wine drinkers of the alcohol business. Most people dont care about that, they just go for whats cheap and get them buzzed. The new wine snobs of this era are gonna be the “weed connesiours”, its already happening, you may be one and not realize it.

        • Zack

          Seriously? Outdoor weed sucks. It is some of the worst stuff you can get! Cheapest way grown = worst weed possible.

          Yea you can grow huge plants for dirt cheap but it is garbage. Good genetics or not, outdoor is trash. Even the hash is not worthy, it literally tastes like dirt.

          It is clear that you are a “user” and not a “producer” as you expect rock bottom prices on an expensive product without regard to the cost of doing business.

          As a consumer, $10 a gram is totally legit. Inflation effects cannabis just the same as everything else! As a producer, it gets sold more around $2.50 to $5 a gram, which is resold… You can’t get a good beer for that little at the local bar, which is about equivalent in “highness” to a gram.

          I do agree Recreational prices are stupid. $60 an eighth! WTF! Florida Prices here in Colorado! But the med side is on point, $25-$35 an eighth. Blame the state, they make it that way.

          Plus as a business you cannot grow outside. It has to be under lock & key with 24/hr video surveillance to the police station. Not behind a small fence that can be jumped / cut threw. What a joke. Greenhouse is your best bet, which reduces your light input & requires supplemental lighting, which costs money. Licenses, Licenses, Licenses, and Taxes, Taxes, Taxes, plus labor & a facility… expect to drop ~$50,000 to get started plus reoccurring fees, rent, etc. All paid for with “$20 to $50 oz”… Sounds like a poor business model to me. You MIGHT turn a profit in 5-10 years… Don’t hire any employees and you might make it.

          You “can” do as you wish & sell your dirty outdoor for dirt prices… but you wont catch me dead coming anywhere near your store! Nor any other connoisseur for that matter! Good herb costs money.

          Now for the average Joe, dirt $30 oz weed is great… but I wont touch that shit with a ten foot pole! Some straight dirt mexican brick. Lots of people are happy smoking that… and FYI you can buy an OZ of that for $40 in FLORIDA right now!

          Get what you pay for. Want the best, it will cost you. Want it cheap, its not going to be the best! Simple facts of life my friend.

          Not to mention you are totally trying to kill the little guy and become a cannabis walmart. Such prices would make it a useless plant unless you were growing thousands of plants. Such as Marlboro. Which means it is not worth growing unless you have $150,000 to invest. Not too “cool” of an idea… not everyone has $150k laying around & for many it is the Only way to support their Families.

  • painkills2

    I have a friend in New Mexico who just paid $180 for half an ounce… Should I ask him if his back hurts from bending over to get screwed?

  • ctrandy

    In Connecticut, we pay $19.83 per gram and the product is already ground up and sold in a sealed prescription bottle.

    • space bound

      why do they do that.? Its like buying shake

  • Ras Ible

    It should be cheaper than cigarettes by weight and volume that’s for sure!

  • Guest

    None of it means much for people outside of Colorado. The government needs to reclassify marijuana, or make it exempt from classification, just as alcohol is.

    Until the feral government gets on board with what the MAJORITY of its citizens want, things will still be jacked-up.

    That is the maddening thing. The majority of citizens want marijuana legalization, or some type of reform. But, the government is turning a deaf ear to tis people & going with its own decision, not the decision of the people.

  • Mark Elrod

    None of it means much for people outside of Colorado. The government needs to reclassify marijuana, or make it exempt from classification, just as alcohol is.

    Until the fedral government gets on board with what the MAJORITY of its citizens want, things will still be jacked-up.

    That is the maddening thing. The majority of citizens want marijuana legalization, or some type of reform. But, the government is turning a deaf ear to tis people & going with its own decision, not the decision of the people.

    • MrPC

      Other states can follow Colorado’s lead. If 15 or 20 states have legal recreational cannabis for adults, what can the federal government do? Not even Michele Marie Leonhart (career law enforcement officer and currently head of the DEA) can stop that tide. Unless, of course, bible-thumping conservatives control both the legislature and White House. In that case, all bets are off.

      • Nicolas Edwards

        Oh no….. gonna see if next house and senate are bible thumpers or true blue tea bagging libertarians!

  • Boulderite

    I live in Colorado and I pay $135/oz for great stuff at a medical dispensary (a little less than $17/eighth). Here in Boulder there is at least 1 rec store that I know of that sells $180/oz for Boulder County residents ($22.50/eighth). Both of those prices are including taxes. So at least in this part of the state, pretty much no locals are paying those prices anyway.

  • geeowedee

    Here in oakland cali prices are 25-30 8th so I think prices all around going to drop and thats the topshelf stuff

  • Zack

    Grow garbage and yes the prices will plummet. Grow quality and the price will remain stable. Simple as that.

    • Dom Jenkins

      U obviously have no business sense. Its not about how good it is. Its simple supply and demand. Over supply of any good will always drop prices down. Weed is extremely over priced anyway.

      • Zack

        So what you are saying is… you can sell mexican brick weed faster than you can some exotic cannabis cup quality for the same price? With the choice of brick vs exotic, both costs $150/oz… hmmm i think im gonna go get that exotic, as it does matter how good it is.

        And as a business, by selling the exotic at the rate of the “supply”, you will end up with a larger profit over time. More sales = more money. Yea your undercutting yourself, but in the end, you will make more than everyone else due to sales.

        Overpriced by who’s standard? The User or the Producer? And by what price standard do you go by?

        • Dom Jenkins

          But were not talking about Good vs bad weed. Idk even know anyone who still smokes that brick stuff. What im saying is the last few years there has been a rapid increase marijuana growers growing decent product. Not brick weed. The price drop is already happening, in my home state marijuana has dropped by almost 100 dollars in 2 years. How have you not seen this happening ? Its going on all across America.
          More growers growing good bud is always going to lessen the demand for it. Which inturn will lower the prices. Didn’t you read this article? Khalatbari is a well respected shop owner and he is saying it may drop to as low as 50 bucks a zip.

        • Estevez

          Get over yourself. It is NOT hard to grow great weed period. Peeps been doing it stealth for decades and great genetics are easily attainable now. Yep prices will fall because there is an over abundance of awesome dank easy to grow weed.

          • Zack

            Apparently it is pretty damn hard to grow “great” weed, as nearly everyone doing it sucks ass. even the dispensary weed sucks!

            Good genetics or not, if you don’t flush enough, which no one does, it will suck! Lets smoke some chemicals! mmm soo good!

            Everything is just mediocre. even “The Clinic” could improve a bit & they have the BEST available in Colorado!

            Everyone wants to pretend they grow the best shit with the cheapest nutes & it just don’t work that way.

            What is more likely is you have only smoked “good” shit, so you really don’t know what “connoisseur” shit is like.

          • Nicolas Edwards

            Wow, real crybaby. Bet you think you can’t get high off fan leaves as well!

          • Zack

            ROFLMFAO!!!!! HAVE FUN WITH THAT ONE BRO! Lets roll some fattys outa
            some fan leaves! Tasty! get SOOO Stoned! Like 0.2% thc in it, maybe
            some cbd’s or other random shit that get “you” high, but
            not me. Maybe from Lack of Oxygen to the Brain.

            That shit is trash. Unless you plan to juice it for the medicinal value, which doesn’t get you high.

          • Nicolas Edwards

            ” Unless you plan to juice it for the medicinal value, which doesn’t get you high.”

            The edibles market uses fan leaves just fine and not for medicinal value. You really don’t know what your talking about.

          • Zack

            HOKAY! LOL!!!

          • The blu 1

            if you got some shiny thc filled leaves from some bomb they will most certainly get you high

          • Space Cowgirl

            Yeah but how do you get decent seeds? And from where?

        • Nicolas Edwards

          Logical fallacy dip weed. No one said anything about a comparison of ditch weed to sweet indoor.

    • Nicolas Edwards

      You must be stoned and not know about supply and demand. If everyone grows fairly good weed…… price drops. If stores are not reqired to grow 70% of their weed then producer only ventures come in, maximise the grow end of the biz , and prices drop. come on . You’re as simple as that.